Container cargo volume in India is projected to rise by 8% this fiscal year, reaching 380 million tonnes, despite a decline in shipments to the US due to new 50% tariffs on Indian goods, as per a CareEdge Ratings report. This growth is somewhat lower than the 11% increase recorded in FY25, driven by challenges like disruptions in the Panama Canal. Over the past three years, the sector has maintained an annual growth rate of 8%.
Although the US is India’s largest export market, accounting for 20% of merchandise exports, its share in sea trade outside electronics is under 5%, limiting the tariffs’ direct impact. Overall merchandise exports reached $437 billion in FY25, with only a small portion attributed to sea exports to the US.
Port expansions and increased transshipment activities have supported growth, but coal volumes are expected to decrease by 3% in FY26, despite a 10% rise in coastal coal volumes. Additionally, coal imports fell due to a 5% increase in domestic production and a rise in renewable energy generation, reducing dependency on coal by 8%.
Recent geopolitical tensions and the ongoing impact of global disruptions have posed new challenges to shipping operations. However, recent port capacity additions are expected to bolster container growth, even as rising insurance costs and variable shipping rates continue to exert pressure on the sector.
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