Crude Oil Tanker Deliveries Hit 36-Year Low in 2024

In 2024, the number of new crude oil tankers delivered hit a 36-year low, with only 17 new tankers joining the fleet, totaling 2.5 million deadweight tonnes (DWT). This marked a significant decrease of 74% compared to the previous year. The recycling of crude tankers also increased to 1.7 million DWT in 2024, resulting in minimal fleet growth of only 0.2% by the end of the year, the slowest growth rate in 23 years. The Aframax and Suezmax segments experienced slight capacity growth, while the VLCC segment saw a decrease of 0.2% due to recycling and no new deliveries.

Despite a rise in earnings in 2022 due to Russian sanctions and longer voyages, contracting for new ships fell to 3.2 million DWT, an 83% drop from the average of the past decade. This, combined with low recycling rates, has led to an increase in the average age of crude tankers to 12.8 years, the highest in 26 years. Nearly 19% of crude tankers are now 20 years old or older, contributing 18% of the fleet’s capacity, making them likely candidates for recycling in the near future unless they are kept operational as part of a parallel fleet.

Following a period of low activity in 2022, new ship contracting rebounded in 2023 and 2024, with the order book/fleet ratio climbing from 2.8% to 10.4% by early 2025. The order book extends into 2028 and could potentially add an average of 2.5% capacity per year over the next four years. This growth is expected to align with global oil demand, even if recycling of older ships accelerates. The fleet renewal could also contribute to decarbonizing the fleet, as a significant portion of new ships are designed to use alternative fuels or are easily retrofitted for such technology. This shift towards newer, more environmentally friendly vessels could help modernize and reduce the carbon footprint of the crude tanker fleet in the coming years.

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