The global containership industry is on alert as the orderbook has surged to 11.61 million TEU, which accounts for 34.8% of the current fleet. This level is significantly beyond typical fleet replacement needs, according to maritime intelligence firm Linerlytica. The ordering frenzy in 2025 saw carriers place orders for 633 vessels totaling 5.08 million TEU, breaking previous records from 2021 and 2024. Recent contracts from COSCO and Hapag-Lloyd contributed to surpassing the 4.77 million TEU ordered in 2024 and the 4.74 million TEU from 2021.
This rapid expansion raises concerns about potential oversupply over the next four years. The key issue is whether cargo demand can keep pace with the significant new capacity scheduled for delivery by 2029. While Chinese shipyards continue to dominate, securing 79% of the orders and representing 72% of total capacity, South Korean builders have increased their market share, rising from 11% in 2024 to 27% in 2025.
The market remains unstable, as evidenced by recent failed attempts to secure rate increases. Following these setbacks, carriers initiated another round of rate hikes in mid-December, only to reverse some of the raised rates shortly thereafter. As the industry prepares for 2026, the Premier Alliance carriers plan to enhance their service network, focusing on security concerns by opting for the Cape of Good Hope route over the Suez Canal.
With record new orders juxtaposed against uncertain demand growth and heightened competition, the industry faces a looming risk of disruption as new vessels enter service in the coming years. Whether the market can absorb this additional capacity without leading to a prolonged decline in freight rates presents a critical challenge for industry leaders and analysts alike.
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