The future of ocean carriers returning to the Red Sea remains uncertain, despite a recent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Maritime experts are skeptical about a swift resumption of the Suez Canal route, citing challenges such as the complexity of network adjustments, the threat of renewed hostilities, and the likelihood of port congestion if multiple carriers attempt to return simultaneously.
Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, emphasized that the situation is still in its early stages, and there are no guarantees that the ceasefire will last or effectively end the ongoing conflict. He noted that re-establishing even a single weekly service through the Suez Canal involves rerouting a significant number of vessels over an extensive 98-day round trip.
Moreover, analysts predict that if multiple carriers decide to shift back to the Suez route at once, it could lead to substantial port congestion and disruptions lasting from two to six months. Since December 2023, carriers have been avoiding the Red Sea due to Houthi rebel attacks on vessels linked to Israel, leaving shipping companies vulnerable even if their operations are not directly associated with Israeli ports.
Container analyst Lars Jensen echoed this sentiment, indicating that it will take several months for shipping companies to consider a return, even with a peace agreement in place, as they need to be assured of its stability.
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