The global shipping order book has surged to its highest point in almost two decades, driven by a significant increase in tanker contracts and robust newbuilding demand throughout the 2020s, according to BIMCO’s latest analysis. By the end of Q1 2026, the order book reached 191 million compensated gross tonnes (CGT), which represents 17% of the current fleet, the highest ratio since 2011. Filipe Gouveia, BIMCO’s Shipping Analysis Manager, noted that this growth is propelled by record levels of crude tanker contracting.
In Q1 alone, newbuilding contracts rose by 40% year-over-year to 17.6 million CGT, largely due to a tripling of crude tanker orders and a resurgence in LNG carrier contracts. Tankers made up 32% of all new orders, the largest share since 2017. However, there are signs of a cooling trend, as total contracting decreased by 17% compared to Q4 2025, primarily due to a decline in dry bulk orders after a recent spike in demand for capesize vessels.
Overall, newbuilding activity in this decade is up 47% compared to the average from the 2010s, fueled by stronger freight rates and an increasing need to replace aging ships. Notably, 21% of the crude tanker fleet is over 20 years old, suggesting a pressing need for replacements. In various sectors, orderbook-to-fleet ratios have reached historic highs, emphasizing the large volume of vessels anticipated to enter service soon.
Shipyard capacity is tight, with Chinese yards dominating 70% of Q1 orders, while South Korean builders held 20%. Japanese shipyards, however, have dropped to just 1% market share. Despite this boom, BIMCO warns that the increased orderbook could lead to a contraction in newbuilding contracts, as extended lead times and geopolitical instability, especially in critical shipping lanes, weigh on future decisions. For now, the momentum indicates a rapidly growing global fleet, with substantial new tonnage already earmarked.
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