Russia’s Northern Sea Route: Record Transit Traffic Expected This Summer

This summer, Russia’s Northern Sea Route is expected to see record transit traffic, with nearly 200 permits already issued by route administrator Rosatom. While the majority of permits are for Russian-flagged relief ships, an increasing number of foreign-flagged LNG tankers, crude oil tankers, and container ships are also expected to transit the region. Permits have been granted for LNG tankers servicing Novatek’s Yamal LNG project and possibly Arctic LNG 2, with some ships operating independently in ice-free or light ice conditions.

Last year, Russia sent crude oil through the Arctic for the first time using non-ice class tankers, and officials plan to continue and expand these operations this summer. Experts predict a doubling or tripling of transit traffic compared to last year, with crude oil shipments being a key driver. Improved schedule stability has attracted container shipping companies to the region, with Chinese company NewNew Shipping planning to increase its trips this summer.

While most major container ship operators have publicly withdrawn from shipping through the Arctic, niche operators like Safetrans Line are still utilizing the route. This summer, the route is expected to see its first Panamex boxcarrier and potentially more ad hoc travel as instability on other routes increases. Ongoing uncertainty and turbulence in traditional shipping routes could further increase the attractiveness of the Arctic route for some operators.

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