Modest 2% Growth Predicted in World Maritime Transport for 2024

Global trade by sea is expected to increase by 2.4% in 2023, reaching 12.29 billion tons. The growth is driven by demand for bulk raw materials like iron ore, coal, and cereals, as well as containerized goods. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) presented these findings in the “Maritime Transport Report 2024.” In 2024, modest shipping growth of 2% is anticipated.

The report highlights that containerized maritime traffic is projected to experience a more significant recovery in 2024, with an expected increase of 3.5%. This follows a minimal growth of 0.3% in 2023. However, the long-term growth of the sector will be influenced by how the shipping industry adapts to current crises, such as the war in Ukraine and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The report also notes that disruptions in primary maritime routes have temporarily increased demand for tonnage, helping to balance the excess tonnage supply.

In 2023, the hold capacity of container ships increased by 8.2%. However, disruptions to maritime routes have led to longer routes for ships, temporarily alleviating the problem of excess tonnage supply. If these disruptions cease, there could be an imbalance between supply and demand, potentially resulting in excess container fleet capacity. The UNCTAD report emphasizes the importance of monitoring these factors to ensure a sustainable balance in the shipping industry.

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