Carbon pricing is transitioning from theory to reality in the global shipping industry, drastically altering financial landscapes and business strategies. Estimates by Siglar Carbon project that incorporating shipping into the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) in 2025 will incur over $6 billion in compliance costs. By the decade’s end, additional regional and global carbon pricing could push annual costs past $50 billion.
This significant figure stems from various overlapping schemes, including the EU ETS, FuelEU Maritime, and the UK’s ETS, alongside the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) forthcoming Greenhouse Gas Fuel Intensity (GFI) regulation scheduled for 2028. Siglar warns that if multiple frameworks coexist and more nations adopt similar measures, global shipping carbon costs might skyrocket to nearly $100 billion by 2030.
LSEG Research anticipates European carbon prices could hit $150 per tonne of CO₂ by 2030, further impacting operators relying on fossil fuels. The GFI scheme is poised to impose $22 billion in initial annual costs, potentially rising to $33 billion by 2030.
As carbon pricing becomes a key financial factor, it influences charter returns, voyage economics, credit evaluations, and insurance risk assessments, fundamentally integrating emissions into the maritime sector’s commercial framework.
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