Over three months have elapsed since the last Houthi attack on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, yet Suez Canal traffic remains significantly reduced. BIMCO reports that current maritime activity is approximately 60% below pre-crisis volumes, as lingering security concerns and economic uncertainties continue to affect the industry. The last vessel targeted by the Houthis, the Minervagracht, was attacked on September 29, 2025, marking a pause in hostilities that was declared 43 days later. However, the anticipated influx of ships back into the canal has not materialized.
Niels Rasmussen, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, noted that even after the Hoothis stopped their attacks, Suez Canal traffic remained 60% lower in early 2026 compared to the same period in 2023. The Houthis conducted a total of 99 attacks or hijackings between November 2023 and September 2025. Although initial disruptions did not significantly impact volumes, canal transit levels have plummeted by 51–64% since early 2024. Container shipping has suffered the most, with fourth-quarter 2025 transits down by 86% compared to 2023.
Despite a cautious return to the Suez route by some carriers like CMA CGM, container vessels largely continue to avoid the canal. In contrast, product tankers are returning more quickly due to increased freight rate premiums. Financial pressure is mounting for shipping lines to resume the canal transits, with war-risk insurance dropping to its lowest since late 2023. Overall, while the potential for normalizing traffic exists, significant uncertainty remains regarding security risks and market demand.
Security experts, however, warn against complacency, citing that the threat from the Houthis has not entirely vanished. The group has indicated their readiness to resume attacks should the situation in Gaza deteriorate. Experts project that a full return to normalcy in the Suez Canal could lead to major economic implications, including reduced demand in container shipping and associated sectors. For now, the canal operates below capacity, with shipowners weighing the financial benefits of resuming routes against persisting security uncertainties.
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