NOAA has predicted that the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will be near-normal, with the likelihood for above-average, below-average or near-normal activity being 30%, 40% and 30% respectively. The forecast predicts between 12 and 17 named storms with potential winds of 39 miles per hour or more, with 5-9 of these potentially developing into hurricanes and 1-4 becoming severe hurricanes with winds of over 111 miles per hour. The forecast has a 70% confidence level. NOAA is investing in scientific advances in hurricane modelling that will enable more accurate forecasts to prepare for and respond to the environmental and economic impacts.
The factors that influence hurricane development are varied. Favorable local conditions such as higher than average monsoons in West Africa and higher than average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean provide more energy for storm development, while El Nino suppresses hurricane activity. These factors are part of the atmospheric and oceanic conditions affecting the Atlantic and can offset the influence of El Nino. The Atlantic hurricane peak period has resulted in more active hurricane seasons since 1995 due to long-term variability. NOAA will make upgrades and improvements this summer, including expanding its supercomputing system by 20%, to improve its ability to provide accurate and timely forecasts.
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