2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast: 11 Hurricanes Expected

Hurricanes Idalia and Franklin captured by NOAA's GOES West satellite, August 29, 2023. Photo: NOAA
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecasted to be highly active, with CSU researchers predicting a record-breaking 11 hurricanes. Factors like warm sea temperatures and La Niña conditions contribute to this outlook. Phil Klotzbach notes similarities to past active seasons. Landfall probabilities are highest for the U.S. Gulf Coast and Caribbean.
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The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be exceptionally active, with researchers at Colorado State University predicting a record 11 hurricanes in their first forecast. The season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, is also expected to see a total of 23 named storms, 11 of which are forecasted to become hurricanes and five to become major hurricanes with wind speeds of 111 miles per hour or more. The forecast is based on several factors, including warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and the transition from El Niño to La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific.

The researchers use statistical models and other assessment tools to predict the conditions for the upcoming hurricane season. Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist at CSU, noted similarities between the 2024 season and historically active seasons like those in 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010, and 2020. The report also includes the likelihood of major hurricanes making landfall, with a 62% chance for the entire U.S. coast, 34% for the U.S. East Coast, 42% for the Gulf Coast, and 66% for the Caribbean.

Additional forecast updates will be released on June 11, July 9, and August 6, to provide ongoing information on the evolving hurricane season. The forecast takes into account various factors such as sea surface temperatures, wind shear, and historical data to provide a detailed prediction for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

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