The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral conditions between April and June 2024, with a 79% probability. This is likely to be followed by the development of La Niña weather patterns between June and August 2024, with a 55% probability. The transition is indicated by above-average temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and a decrease in atmospheric anomalies.
The predicted La Niña weather conditions could bring relief to the Panama Canal water crisis, as they traditionally result in above-average rainfall in the region. This year’s strong El Niño has led to one of the driest years on record in Panama, forcing the Panama Canal Authority to limit the waterway’s capacity to conserve water. However, the authority plans to maintain the current 24 daily transits through the end of this year’s dry season in April, with hopes of returning to the normal rate of 36 transits per day if the rainy season begins as expected in May.
The future of canal operations is dependent on the start of the rainy season, as further reductions in daily transits or maximum drafts may be required if the rainfall does not meet expectations.
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