Global trade is projected to exceed $35 trillion in 2025, reflecting a 7% increase from 2024, according to UNCTAD’s latest Global Trade Update. This growth is taking place amid rising geopolitical tensions and increasing costs that may hinder momentum as the year progresses. The maritime sector is a significant contributor, with seaborne goods trade adding nearly $1.5 trillion to the growth, while services trade rose by roughly $750 billion, marking a nearly 9% expansion.
East Asia outperformed other regions, witnessing a 9% increase in exports and a 10% rise in intra-regional trade. Africa also experienced robust growth, with imports increasing by 10% and exports by 6%. Notably, South-South trade among developing economies grew at a rate of 8%, showcasing increased resilience. In contrast, North America and Europe showed more moderate advancements, with North American exports rising by 2% and European exports growing by 6% but slowing down to 2% recently.
Manufacturing led the overall trade growth, expanding by 10% thanks to strong performance in electronics, particularly those driven by AI demand. While agricultural trade saw an 8% increase in the third quarter, the automotive sector faced challenges, with a 4% decline in trade overall. The continued narrowing of trade imbalances and shifting shipping patterns due to geopolitical fragmentation indicate a complex landscape ahead for the maritime industry, as pressures from debt and rising trade costs may impact future growth.
