Cost Competitiveness of Nuclear Merchant Ships Hinges on IMO Net-Zero Framework, Says UCL
Nuclear-powered merchant ships can only become cost-competitive if a strong global emissions policy is in force and reactor costs drop sharply, according to new research from the Shipping and Oceans Research Group at the UCL Energy Institute, part of University College London in the United Kingdom.
The study compared a large container ship of 14,500 to 19,999 TEU running on nuclear power against conventional fuel oil and dual-fuel ammonia designs. Researchers combined a literature review, interviews with UK experts in law, insurance, classification and technology, and a cost model run both with and without the IMO Net-Zero Framework (NZF).
The findings were clear. Without the NZF, no nuclear ship was cheaper than a conventional vessel, even at the lowest reactor cost. Under the NZF, nuclear ships could earn income by selling surplus emission units to other ships, which closes the cost gap. Reactor cost estimates vary widely, from about USD 2,600 to 12,400 per kWe. At the low end, nuclear becomes the cheapest option from 2040; at the high end, it is never the cheapest.
The study also found that sailing faster does not pay off. At 25 knots, a ship covers 32% more distance a year but needs more than three times the installed power, pushing costs up.
Non-technical barriers are just as significant. Existing nuclear liability rules were written for fixed land-based reactors, and experts expect no global framework for the first ships. A mature insurance regime could take 15 to 20 years to develop.
For seafarers, the report is a reminder that nuclear shipping remains a long-term prospect, and that any move in this direction will require entirely new skills, training and regulation.
