Gulf oil exporters have seen crude shipment levels return to pre-war standards for much of September, but ongoing attacks on tankers and logistical issues pose challenges to maintaining these output levels. A shipping intelligence service identified increasing threats to vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz amid heightened maritime traffic, with data from Kpler revealing a seven-day moving average of 18.3 million barrels per day by the month’s end, marking 14 days of exports exceeding pre-war figures.
The uplift in exports stems from Saudi Arabia’s increased shipments following a recent attack on its East-West pipeline. Consequently, more supertankers are now required to transport crude through Hormuz, while Iraqi oil tankers recently gained permission to traverse the strait, enhancing overall flows. A shipping data provider reported that Middle Eastern crude and condensate exports reached an average of 18.6 million bpd in mid-September, surpassing seasonal norms and returning to pre-conflict standards, largely driven by Saudi efforts to regain market share.
Despite this recovery, recent weeks have seen multiple attacks on vessels in the region, raising concerns over maritime security. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency has highlighted a concerning trend, reporting daily incidents in strategic waterways. Analysts suggest that these attacks may not always be targeted but could result from wider targeting patterns emerging from Iranian military actions, potentially affecting global oil supplies significantly.
