Demand for low greenhouse gas (GHG) methane is projected to rise as the LNG-capable fleet adapts to stricter emissions regulations. The future of low-GHG methane as a marine fuel hinges on regulatory clarity, bridging supply gaps, and competing demand. Currently, around 800 LNG-capable vessels are in operation, with an additional 600 on order, supported by established bunkering infrastructure and safety standards.
DNV’s white paper, “Methane in Shipping: LNG-fueled ships and the switch to low-GHG methane,” highlights that low-GHG methane, which includes bio-methane and e-methane, can utilize existing LNG infrastructure. This compatibility allows low-GHG methane to serve as a drop-in fuel for LNG vessels, with improvements in bunkering infrastructure covering major global trade routes.
Despite technological maturity, challenges remain, such as the absence of a unified regulatory framework on custody models, which could hinder access to low-GHG methane. Additionally, the cost disparity between liquefied low-GHG methane and fossil LNG poses a barrier to widespread adoption. Current prices show liquefied bio-methane costing significantly more than fossil LNG, influenced by geopolitical factors.
The potential for scaling low-GHG methane production exists, but its success in the shipping sector depends on market dynamics and regulatory incentives. Initiatives like the EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime could bolster demand, with projections estimating a need for 2–11 million tons of low-GHG methane by 2040, and possibly up to 95 million tons if stricter targets are met.
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