Since the onset of the Iran war, global seaborne crude oil shipments have dropped by 16%, translating to a loss of 7.6 million barrels per day (mbpd), now totaling 38.4 mbpd, according to Signal Ocean data. Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, notes that this decline mirrors a similar 16% decrease compared to the same period last year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration had projected global oil production for 2026 at 79.9 mbpd, meaning that nearly 9.5% of expected production is currently not reaching markets.
The primary driver of this decline is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has severely limited tanker transits. In the past six weeks, crude oil shipments from the Persian Gulf have fallen by 12.7 mbpd compared to earlier in the year. While the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have managed slight increases in shipments, overall, other countries have only raised their shipments by 1.4 mbpd.
Despite a recent two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, transit levels through the Strait have not significantly improved. The U.S. has blocked traffic to and from Iranian ports, which may further reduce transit volumes. Even if the Strait is reopened, it may take time for shipments to return to previous levels, given reported damage to production capacities in Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
