Commercial Viability Challenges for IMO’s New Zero-Emission Fuel Policy

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The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has introduced new policy measures aimed at transitioning to zero-emission fuels, but the Global Maritime Forum warns that these measures might not provide sufficient incentives for e-fuels like green ammonia and e-methanol to become commercially viable soon. Jesse Fahnestock, the Forum’s Director of Decarbonisation, emphasized that while the IMO’s framework is a significant advancement, early competitiveness of e-fuels is crucial to avoid bottlenecks in decarbonisation efforts.

The IMO’s mid-term measures, set for formal adoption in October, will enforce global fuel intensity targets starting in 2028, along with penalties for non-compliance. Although liquefied natural gas and ammonia dual-fuel ships may remain cost-competitive until the mid-2030s, green ammonia is expected to emerge as the most economical zero-emission fuel thereafter. However, the reliance on blue fuels could hinder the adoption of truly renewable alternatives.

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To facilitate the transition, the Forum suggests that targeted incentives, such as enhanced credit rewards for zero-emission fuels, are essential. Estimates indicate that decarbonising shipping could require investments between $1.2 trillion and $1.6 trillion by 2050, with ammonia likely being the primary zero-carbon fuel. Despite safety concerns regarding ammonia, e-methanol is seen as a promising near-term option.

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