The situation in southwest Yemen is rapidly changing, with conflicting reports from the ground creating confusion. The Houthis, initially making slow advances, are now accelerating their efforts to capture more of the southern Red Sea coastline, aiming to control strategic areas down to the Bab el Mandeb strait. Their renewed military activities since the informal ceasefire in March 2022 seem focused on enhancing their leverage over maritime traffic in the region.
The Houthis assert that their operations aim to end what they claim is a blockade of their territory by Saudi Arabia, despite controlling only parts of the Red Sea traffic due to the area’s vastness. Currently, forces from the Internationally Recognized Government (IRG) hold the coastline and islands that oversee crucial shipping routes. The Houthis deny any intent to restrict Saudi access to the Bab el Mandeb, but their military maneuvers suggest otherwise.
Recently, the Houthis have made significant territorial gains, pushing south past Al Khawkhah and threatening the port of Mocha, which changed hands multiple times. They also appear to have established a presence on the Hanish Islands, further consolidating their position in the region. The IRG, however, has not collapsed and has launched counterattacks in other areas, particularly in Marib, which could strain Houthi resources.
The evolving conflict underscores the strategic importance of the Bab el Mandeb strait, especially in light of the ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. While the IRG has not faltered significantly, timely intervention from Saudi Arabia and other stakeholders is critical to prevent the Houthis from achieving their objectives in this vital maritime corridor.
