Shipowners have placed orders for over 217 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) in 2026, more than double the 93 ordered in the previous year, reflecting a $20 billion buying surge—the largest in 25 years. This increase is driven by the US-Iran conflict, which is reshaping trade routes and elevating demand for long-haul crude shipments. Analysts suggest that buyers are diversifying away from Middle Eastern oil sources, anticipating sustained long-distance oil trade despite the global shift from fossil fuels.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG, has prompted refiners in Asia and Europe to seek alternative supplies. U.S. crude exports have surged, and production from South America is expected to increase significantly by 2030, further supporting long-haul trade. The demand for VLCCs is also influenced by the need to transport oil from the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz to larger tankers in the Gulf of Oman, amid safety concerns over Iranian attacks.
Additionally, the aging VLCC fleet, with 20% of vessels over 20 years old, has accelerated orders for new ships. Each VLCC costs around $130 million to build, and recent contracts indicate confidence in medium-term demand. Even older vessels are finding new roles in the “shadow fleet,” transporting sanctioned oil from countries like Russia and Iran.
